Speaking of Olympic-bound people who have already tested positive, McCloskey said the system does not fail. Quite the opposite – everyone presented a more contagious timeline cut that could happen. “What we’re seeing is what we expect.” “If I thought all the tests we did would be negative, I wouldn’t bother to do the tests.”

Alas, 91 positive cases out of about 15,000 competitors and thousands of journalists and other Olympic workers are not bad, right? For some pathologists and advocates of the athlete, the answer is: it is, in fact, too bad – because of what it says about the preparations, and what could happen next.

At least it is What some scientists and experts say. Narro virologist Hitoshi Oshitani says Japan has developed an anti-covid strategy. Time Neither London nor he thought it was possible to hold a safe Olympics. “There are many countries that do not have many cases, and many countries that do not have any type,” Oshitani said. Time. “We should not do the Olympics [an occasion] To spread the virus in these countries. U.S. And the U.K. So there is no greater risk, where people are vaccinated. But most countries in the world do not have this vaccine. “

McCloskey estimates that about 85 percent of those coming to Tokyo will be vaccinated. But only 22 percent are Japanese. It has the lowest rates of all rich countries. Combined with Japan’s relatively low case count, it means that most populations do not yet have antibodies to the virus. They call epidemiologists “naive”. Which could mean Japan, as the clich goes, is a victim of its own success. Samuel Scorpino, managing director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation’s epidemic prevention organization, says there is clearly a high price to be paid for hosting the Olympics. “Because it is definitely dangerous to gather people inside the country without any vaccinations and with people who do not have existing immunity in the population in the country.”

The asymptomatic, airborne spread of Covid-19 means that tests have to be done at least once a day, at least frequently, to catch the case before it can be transmitted to another. U.S. Strict, successful disease control measures of the National Football League and the National Basketball Association were used, for example, all typical hygiene and distance measures, in addition to a strict test-trace-isolate regiment. The NFL conducted daily reverse-transcription PCR tests and provided players and staff with single-purpose electronic devices that recorded close contacts; Accumulated 15 minutes or more as cum risk. Over time, the NFLA supplemented electronics with intense personal face-to-face interviews to determine the nature of those contacts. (Hidden? Indoors? While eating?) “What the NBA did – or the women’s basketball, l, which I advised last year – was to design and pull the bubble. Once you get into it, you don’t go out, “says Annie Sparrow, a professor of population health sciences and policy at MT Sinai Medical School.” There’s no way you can ever make a bubble at the Olympics. Not. “

In early July, Sparrow and other U.S. Published a comment in a group of researchers New England Journal of Medicine Oshitani expressed many concerns. They went on to warn that the strategy that McCloskey’s group has come up with is based on old information about the dynamics of the virus.

This article, in turn, echoed criticism made by the World Players Association, an international group that works with athletes’ associations around the world. The WPAA has argued – with no response from the IOC, will have little effect – that the rules consider contact, saying that rugby pitches are the same as in individual gymnastics or on a track running in contact. WPA representatives shared the condition of the shared room and criticized the playbook’s advice about opening the windows once for ventilation, something that might be impractical in the extreme summer heat of Tokyo. The plan is even worse: allowing a variety of masks and personal protective devices, using phone applications to find contacts instead of dedicated tech, and a lineup of other low-stellar interventions called for by WPA Rips just asking for trouble. “There’s never a risk of zero when it comes to Covid, but there can be more certainty,” says Matthew Graham, WPA’s director of legal and player relations. “We, like the one we introduce, hope this can be done safely, but there should be no cost left for it.”